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Visa vs. Mastercard: Which Payment Stock Has More Upside?
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Key Takeaways
MA's value-added services revenues rose 20% year over year in Q2 2026, reaching 41.2% of total net revenues.
Agent Pay and the BVNK acquisition expand Mastercard's opportunities in emerging payment use cases.
Visa's payments volume rose 10% year over year in Q3 FY26, while processed transactions increased 10%.
As digital payments continue to expand across consumer and cross-border transactions, global payment networks remain closely tied to spending activity and the ongoing shift away from cash. Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) and Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) share similar network-driven business models and operate at the center of these secular payment trends.
Despite their common exposure, the two companies differ in areas such as growth mix, value-added services and strategic priorities. Comparing their revenue trends, transaction volumes, margins and growth initiatives can help assess how each business is positioned for durable expansion.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which stock is more attractive now.
The Case for Visa
Visa continues to benefit from the shift toward digital payments and steady spending across consumer and business categories. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, payments volume increased 10% year over year in constant dollars, while processed transactions rose 10% to 71.7 billion. Cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe climbed 12% year over year in the fiscal third quarter, with cross-border e-commerce growing 16%. Continued digital adoption, international travel and e-commerce activity provide a broad base for transaction growth.
Commercial payments are adding another layer to Visa’s transaction opportunity as businesses increasingly move away from cash and checks. Commercial payments volume grew 13% year over year in constant dollars in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with both U.S. and international volumes contributing to the improvement. V expects the underlying strength in its domestic and cross-border commercial portfolios to continue, supported by client wins and broader adoption of digital business payments.
Visa is also increasingly generating growth from services layered around its core payment network. Value-added services revenues jumped 34% year over year in constant dollars in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, helped by stronger utilization of issuing, acceptance, risk and security solutions. AI has also helped accelerate consulting activity, with V delivering 1,200 projects to more than 700 clients during the quarter, creating scope for further expansion in advisory and technology-led services. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.8%.
New payment rails are becoming an important part of Visa’s longer-term product strategy. Visa Direct transactions rose 21% in the fiscal third quarter, while the company continues to build stablecoin infrastructure through its Visa Stablecoin Platform. The platform is designed to help financial institutions and fintechs manage stablecoin minting, movement and redemption, while V is also developing capabilities for AI-driven payments and agentic commerce. It has more than 150 AI-powered applications and shipped more than 300 major product releases over the past year, supporting efforts to expand payment use cases beyond traditional card transactions.
However, escalating operating expenses and higher rebates and client incentives will likely impact its growth potential. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, adjusted operating expenses rose 17.3% year over year. Its adjusted net margin slipped to 54.1% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 from 57.4% a year earlier. Also, both Visa and Mastercard are facing regulatory and legal risks that directly threaten their pricing power.
The Case for Mastercard
Mastercard continues to benefit from the secular shift toward electronic payments, with cross-border activity and transaction volumes providing key growth avenues. In the second quarter of 2026, switched transactions increased 9% year over year, while cross-border volume rose 12% on a currency-neutral basis. MA is also expanding its network through partnerships and local payment infrastructure, including initiatives in Mexico and the UAE that target markets where cash remains more prevalent.
Mastercard’s services businesses are extending their revenue opportunity beyond traditional payment processing. Value-added services and solutions net revenues increased 20% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, accounting for 41.2% of total net revenues. The growth is supported by security, authentication, data and other offerings. The Mastercard Partner Advantage program, which had more than 200 partners, is also expanding distribution for these capabilities and helping MA reach customers beyond its core network relationships.
The emergence of AI agents is creating a new payment environment in which software can initiate transactions on behalf of consumers and businesses. MA has been developing Agent Pay to provide authentication and security for agent-led transactions and has expanded the capability to support machine-to-machine payments. These initiatives are aimed at establishing Mastercard infrastructure within new forms of commerce as AI-driven purchasing develops.
Stablecoins are becoming increasingly relevant to cross-border payments, settlement, payouts and treasury activity, creating demand for infrastructure that can connect digital assets with traditional payment rails. MA completed its acquisition of BVNK in August 2026, adding capabilities for moving and converting value between fiat and digital currencies. The acquisition complements its existing stablecoin and digital-asset initiatives and provides infrastructure for potential growth in B2B payments, remittances and other money-movement use cases. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.3%.
Mastercard Incorporated Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
The company’s adjusted net margin improved 166 basis points in the second quarter of 2026 to 48%. However, escalating operating expenses and higher rebates and incentives are affecting growth potential. In the second quarter of 2026, its adjusted operating expenses rose 10.7% year over year.
How Do Estimates Compare for V & MA?
The consensus estimate for V’s fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a 14.7% increase from a year ago, while the same for revenues suggests 14.6% growth. It has witnessed one positive earnings estimate revision over the past 30 days against no downward revisions. For Fiscal 2027, EPS is expected to climb another 13.8%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard’s 2026 EPS indicates 16.8% year-over-year growth, and the same for revenues signals a 13.6% rise. It has witnessed two positive earnings estimate revisions over the past 30 days against no downward revisions. For 2027, EPS is expected to climb another 15.3%.
Valuation: V vs. MA
Both Visa and Mastercard trade at premium forward P/E ratios, which are reflective of their wide moats and volumes. V trades at a forward P/E of 25.20X, while MA trades at 26.04X and the industry average is at 17.87X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance Comparison
Over the past three months, Mastercard has outperformed Visa and the broader industry. The S&P 500 increased 2.1% during this time.
3M Price Performance – V, MA, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Target
V currently trades below its average analyst price target of $421.05, implying a 12.2% potential upside from current levels. Meanwhile, MA also trades below its average analyst price target of $666.73, implying an attractive 16.1% potential upside from current levels.
Conclusion
Visa and Mastercard continue to benefit from strong digital-payment adoption, cross-border activity and growing opportunities in value-added services and emerging payment technologies.
However, MA stands out in this comparison, supported by stronger expected 2026 and 2027 EPS growth, faster value-added services growth and additional opportunities from its Agent Pay platform and BVNK acquisition. Its slightly higher valuation reflects these growth prospects, while the wider strategic push into digital assets and new payment use cases provides additional avenues for expansion even though both Visa and Mastercard currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Visa vs. Mastercard: Which Payment Stock Has More Upside?
Key Takeaways
As digital payments continue to expand across consumer and cross-border transactions, global payment networks remain closely tied to spending activity and the ongoing shift away from cash. Visa Inc. (V - Free Report) and Mastercard Incorporated (MA - Free Report) share similar network-driven business models and operate at the center of these secular payment trends.
Despite their common exposure, the two companies differ in areas such as growth mix, value-added services and strategic priorities. Comparing their revenue trends, transaction volumes, margins and growth initiatives can help assess how each business is positioned for durable expansion.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which stock is more attractive now.
The Case for Visa
Visa continues to benefit from the shift toward digital payments and steady spending across consumer and business categories. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, payments volume increased 10% year over year in constant dollars, while processed transactions rose 10% to 71.7 billion. Cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe climbed 12% year over year in the fiscal third quarter, with cross-border e-commerce growing 16%. Continued digital adoption, international travel and e-commerce activity provide a broad base for transaction growth.
Commercial payments are adding another layer to Visa’s transaction opportunity as businesses increasingly move away from cash and checks. Commercial payments volume grew 13% year over year in constant dollars in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with both U.S. and international volumes contributing to the improvement. V expects the underlying strength in its domestic and cross-border commercial portfolios to continue, supported by client wins and broader adoption of digital business payments.
Visa is also increasingly generating growth from services layered around its core payment network. Value-added services revenues jumped 34% year over year in constant dollars in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, helped by stronger utilization of issuing, acceptance, risk and security solutions. AI has also helped accelerate consulting activity, with V delivering 1,200 projects to more than 700 clients during the quarter, creating scope for further expansion in advisory and technology-led services. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 2.8%.
Visa Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Visa Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Visa Inc. Quote
New payment rails are becoming an important part of Visa’s longer-term product strategy. Visa Direct transactions rose 21% in the fiscal third quarter, while the company continues to build stablecoin infrastructure through its Visa Stablecoin Platform. The platform is designed to help financial institutions and fintechs manage stablecoin minting, movement and redemption, while V is also developing capabilities for AI-driven payments and agentic commerce. It has more than 150 AI-powered applications and shipped more than 300 major product releases over the past year, supporting efforts to expand payment use cases beyond traditional card transactions.
However, escalating operating expenses and higher rebates and client incentives will likely impact its growth potential. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, adjusted operating expenses rose 17.3% year over year. Its adjusted net margin slipped to 54.1% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 from 57.4% a year earlier. Also, both Visa and Mastercard are facing regulatory and legal risks that directly threaten their pricing power.
The Case for Mastercard
Mastercard continues to benefit from the secular shift toward electronic payments, with cross-border activity and transaction volumes providing key growth avenues. In the second quarter of 2026, switched transactions increased 9% year over year, while cross-border volume rose 12% on a currency-neutral basis. MA is also expanding its network through partnerships and local payment infrastructure, including initiatives in Mexico and the UAE that target markets where cash remains more prevalent.
Mastercard’s services businesses are extending their revenue opportunity beyond traditional payment processing. Value-added services and solutions net revenues increased 20% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, accounting for 41.2% of total net revenues. The growth is supported by security, authentication, data and other offerings. The Mastercard Partner Advantage program, which had more than 200 partners, is also expanding distribution for these capabilities and helping MA reach customers beyond its core network relationships.
The emergence of AI agents is creating a new payment environment in which software can initiate transactions on behalf of consumers and businesses. MA has been developing Agent Pay to provide authentication and security for agent-led transactions and has expanded the capability to support machine-to-machine payments. These initiatives are aimed at establishing Mastercard infrastructure within new forms of commerce as AI-driven purchasing develops.
Stablecoins are becoming increasingly relevant to cross-border payments, settlement, payouts and treasury activity, creating demand for infrastructure that can connect digital assets with traditional payment rails. MA completed its acquisition of BVNK in August 2026, adding capabilities for moving and converting value between fiat and digital currencies. The acquisition complements its existing stablecoin and digital-asset initiatives and provides infrastructure for potential growth in B2B payments, remittances and other money-movement use cases. It beat earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 6.3%.
Mastercard Incorporated Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Mastercard Incorporated price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Mastercard Incorporated Quote
The company’s adjusted net margin improved 166 basis points in the second quarter of 2026 to 48%. However, escalating operating expenses and higher rebates and incentives are affecting growth potential. In the second quarter of 2026, its adjusted operating expenses rose 10.7% year over year.
How Do Estimates Compare for V & MA?
The consensus estimate for V’s fiscal 2026 earnings indicates a 14.7% increase from a year ago, while the same for revenues suggests 14.6% growth. It has witnessed one positive earnings estimate revision over the past 30 days against no downward revisions. For Fiscal 2027, EPS is expected to climb another 13.8%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard’s 2026 EPS indicates 16.8% year-over-year growth, and the same for revenues signals a 13.6% rise. It has witnessed two positive earnings estimate revisions over the past 30 days against no downward revisions. For 2027, EPS is expected to climb another 15.3%.
Valuation: V vs. MA
Both Visa and Mastercard trade at premium forward P/E ratios, which are reflective of their wide moats and volumes. V trades at a forward P/E of 25.20X, while MA trades at 26.04X and the industry average is at 17.87X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Performance Comparison
Over the past three months, Mastercard has outperformed Visa and the broader industry. The S&P 500 increased 2.1% during this time.
3M Price Performance – V, MA, Industry & S&P 500
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Price Target
V currently trades below its average analyst price target of $421.05, implying a 12.2% potential upside from current levels. Meanwhile, MA also trades below its average analyst price target of $666.73, implying an attractive 16.1% potential upside from current levels.
Conclusion
Visa and Mastercard continue to benefit from strong digital-payment adoption, cross-border activity and growing opportunities in value-added services and emerging payment technologies.
However, MA stands out in this comparison, supported by stronger expected 2026 and 2027 EPS growth, faster value-added services growth and additional opportunities from its Agent Pay platform and BVNK acquisition. Its slightly higher valuation reflects these growth prospects, while the wider strategic push into digital assets and new payment use cases provides additional avenues for expansion even though both Visa and Mastercard currently carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.